The first time I actually ran my own retirement projections with real numbers, I was 34 and it was terrifying.

I had $68,000 in retirement accounts and was saving $15,000/year. My initial thought was that I was behind. Running the actual numbers was more complicated.

Projection 1: continue at $15k/year for 31 years until 65. At 7% return: approximately $1.65 million. At 4% withdrawal: $66,000/year.

Projection 2: increase contributions to $23k/year (max 401k) for the same period. At 7% return: approximately $2.28 million. At 4% withdrawal: $91,200/year.

Projection 3: retire at 60 with 26 years of contributions at $23k/year. At 7% return: approximately $1.5 million. At 4% withdrawal: $60,000/year.

The three projections painted very different pictures of the trade-offs. The conclusion was that I was on track for a conventional retirement, could significantly improve outcomes by maxing contributions, and could achieve early retirement with the same contribution level but less cushion.

Running the projections removed the vague anxiety and replaced it with specific trade-offs I could actually evaluate.