My experience with the 'pay off mortgage vs invest' question over 10 years of owning a home.

I've run the analysis every year since buying our house at a 3.75% rate in 2014. Here's how my answer has evolved.

2014-2019: invested everything above the minimum mortgage payment. The 10-year average stock market return during this period was approximately 13.6% annually. The opportunity cost of extra mortgage paydown would have been enormous.

2020-2022: rate environment changed but our mortgage rate didn't. Still invested rather than paid down.

2023-present: mortgage rates for new buyers hit 7%+. For someone buying today, the calculus is very different — investing at expected 7% return while paying 7.5% guaranteed on mortgage debt is a coin flip at best.

My conclusion: mortgage paydown as an investment depends entirely on your actual mortgage rate. At 3-4%: invest. At 6%+: genuine trade-off where personal preference and risk tolerance should guide the decision.